Agent Based Model for agricultural areas in the metropolitan regions context

Room D
Tuesday, 1 September 2015
15.00 – 16.45

In the metropolitan regions substantial levels of soil consumption occur, putting successively pressures on agricultural land. Main impacts resulting from this phenomena are: a) the decrease and fragmentation of farmland; b) impacts on food production, c) multifunctionality of landscape and d) soil protection as a scarce resource. For these reasons, during the decision-making (planning) process it is critical understanding issues related to agricultural areas in the metropolitan regions context.
Different actions that can change the land use transformation are developed by various territorial agents. They are the farmers, landowners, developers and policy makers.
The goal of this study is to build predictive and exploratory scenarios for verifying/quantifying the changes in land use occupation for agricultural areas, according to different decisions from the agents in the territory. This approach will be developed in an agent-based model (ABM) context. The ABM is developed for Metropolitan Region of Lisbon. The methodology consists in to the following items:

  • Database of economic, social and environmental indicators (linked to agriculture and urbanization context);
  • Interviews to farmers and decision makers;
  • ABM building: agents, territory and model rules identification;
  • Predictive and exploratory scenarios;
  • Test and model validation with the municipalities of case studies.

The model created allows us analysing and simulating the different interactions between agents and the territory. The results allow us also quantifying and analysing land use changes for each scenario. The results can be applied as recommendations related to spatial planning.

This study is developed in the context of the FCT AGRIMET-MOD project (PTDC/ATP-EUR/4910/2012).

Eduardo Jonas Gomes
Instituto de Geografia e Ordenamento do Território - Universidade de Lisboa
eduardojonas [at]
Patrícia Abrantes
patricia.abrantes [at]
Arnaud Banos
Inês Fontes
Jorge Rocha
University of Lisbon
jorge.rocha [at]

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