Presentation

Estimation of regional climate change taking into account RCP scenarios

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med-cordex domain, precipitation, regional climate modelling, temperature

Our research group is participating in the Med-CORDEX international initiative with the specific aim of contributing to the complex regional climate modelling database with RegCM4.3 experiments at 50 km horizontal resolution. RegCM is a 3-dimensional, sigma-coordinate, primitive equation model, originally developed by Giorgi et al. Currently, it is available from the ICTP (Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics). Additionally, we aim to provide climate projection results for the Carpathian Region and its vicinity, for (i) detailed regional scale analysis, and (ii) specific impact studies to various end-users, impact researchers, and decision makers. For these purposes, we use HadGEM2 global model outputs (1951-2100) as initial and lateral boundary conditions (ICBC) for the entire MED-44 CORDEX area covering the extended Mediterranean region of Europe. The 50-km horizontal resolution RegCM-outputs serve as ICBC inputs for further downscaling using 10 km as a horizontal resolution for a smaller domain covering Central Europe with special focus on the Carpathian Region. After completing the historical experiments, future scenarios are run taking into account RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, which are based on the radiative forcing change by 2100.

Rita Pongrácz
Dept. of Meteorology Eotvos Lorand University
Hungary
pongracz.rita [at] gmail.com
Karolina Andre
Judit Bartholy
Dept. of Meteorology Eotvos Lorand University
Hungary
bartholy [at] caesar.elte.hu
Ildiko Pieczka

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