Presentation

Changes in seasonal pattern of mortality and its relation with temperature: result for urban area of Novi Sad

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Room I
Schedule:
Tuesday, 1 September 2015
08.30 – 10.15
Keywords:
mortality, seasonality, temperature

Seasonal pattern of mortality is recognized and detected for a very long time. Seasonality of mortality is related with different demographic and social factors, environmental issue etc. Studies that have explored seasonal changes in mortality indicated temperature as one of most important factor. Temperature-related mortality has been associated with high as well as low outdoor temperature. Time series analysis of crude death rate (CDR) and coefficient od seasonal variation of mortality (CSVM) in the period from middle of 20th century until first decade of 21th century suggests that urban population in Novi Sad has higher winter mortality. Regression analysis show that crude death rate and temperature are negatively associated, but this pattern has decreasing trend. This finding also confirmed CSVM, which has decreased from 0.25 (95% CI: 0.102-0.256) in 1953/54-1963/64 to 0.07 (95% CI: 0.06-0.154) in 1998/99-2008/09 periods. Results for urban population of Novi Sad support hypothesis that differences of CDR between cold and warm period are due to climate change.

Daniela Arsenovic
University of Novi Sad, Faculty of Sciences, Department of Geography, Tourism and Hotel Management
Serbia
arsenovic.daniela [at] gmail.com
Branislav S Djurdjev
University of Novi Sad, Faculty of Sciences, Department of Geography, Tourism and Hotel Management
Serbia
djurdjev [at] uns.ac.rs

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